The parallels between 1994-1995 and 2004-2005 are quite striking when it comes to the Fed's interest rate policy and the stock market. History tends to repeat itself in the financial markets, and if indeed today's situation plays out like it did a decade ago, short-term pains could very well reward investors with longer term gains.
First, let's recap how the 1994-1995 period took shape. The stock market rallied nicely in 1992 and 1993 as rates fell and corporate earnings showed healthy gains (not unlike 2003-2004). Chairman Greenspan and the Fed began raising interest rates in 1994, using 7 rate increases to take the Fed Funds target from 3% to 6%. Rather than moving gradually and telegraphing its intentions, the Fed moved very quickly, including two increases of 50 bp and one move of 75 bp.
Many were not prepared for such rapid rate hikes, and as a result, Orange County CA, the Mexican Peso, and Wall Street firm Kidder Peabody spun into crisis. Stocks tumbled throughout much of 1994, dropping by more than 10% at one point. However, a late year rally got the market back to about break-even for the year. The last rate increase came in January of 1995. Once the Fed stopped, the stock market rallied strongly for the duration of 1995, finishing the year with a 37% return for the S&P 500.
Could this time play out similarly? Ironically, the Fed's recent 25 bp rate hike, to 2.75%, marked the 7th rate hike since last year. A similar move to 1994 (300 bp from the lowpoint) would put interest rates at 4% when all is said and done, as the Fed Funds rate bottomed at 1% last year. Much like 1994, stock prices have struggled this year as rate increases are showing no signs of letting up.
The similarities are too noticeable to ignore. The Fed has acknowledged that it raised rates too quickly in 1994-1995 and therefore has chosen to move more slowly and steadily this time around. Whenever they decide they have stifled inflation enough, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 1994-1995 scenario continue to play out, with the stock market finally able to make meaningful headway to the upside. Until that happens, 2005 could very well play out just like 1994; painful short-term, but paving the way for gains later on down the road.
As for specific investment strategy, it's not surprising that financial stocks have struggled since the Fed began raising rates. This trend is likely to remain intact as long as Greenspan continues his current course of action. However, financial services stocks are getting very attractive on a valuation basis. Waiting for the last rate hike before buying them will cause one to miss part of the move upward when the Fed is done, since the market will anticipate it ahead of time.
Adding some bank stocks as the tightening cycle winds down should prove very profitable for investors. Check out the chart below of Citigroup from the aforementioned 1994-1995 period. The Fed stopped the rate hikes in early 1995, leading to a huge move in the group.
